Thursday MLB Best Bet: Nationals vs. Marlins

Written by Jake Thompson
Thursday, 07 April 2011 06:06

The MLB best bet for Thursday comes in the game between the Nationals and Marlins.

After going 2-0 on our published best bets for Wednesday, we decided the game between the Washington Nationals (1-4) and the Florida Marlins (3-2) would be the perfect choice for our Thursday MLB best bet.  The Marlins are the very large betting favorites at Las Vegas sportsbooks, but we are instead going to focus our attention on the total which is set at over or under 7.5 runs.

Starting pitchers for this 7:10 PM ET game are left-hander John Lannan (1-0, 1.20 WHIP, 1.80 ERA) for the Nationals and right-hander Josh Johnson (1-0, 0.75 WHIP, 2.70 ERA) for the Marlins.  Lannan dominated the Braves to open the season and has given up just 13 runs over his last 5 starts against the Marlins, with one game being responsible for 6 of the runs.  Johnson easily dispatched of the Mets to open the season and gave up a total of 5 earned runs over 3 starts against Washington last year.

The Nationals are hitting just .199 on the 2011 MLB season and have scored a combined 14 runs over their 5 games.  This team isn’t hitting and I don’t see them improving much against a star pitcher that is in form like Johnson is.  The Marlins are hitting slightly better at .262 but play in a pitcher’s park and have faced a below average slate of starting pitchers so far this year.  Lannan has had a ton of success in 4 of his last 5 starts against this squad and I think he’ll throw a great game on Thursday.

Our MLB best bet here will be on the under 7.5 runs and I expect both starters to make it extremely tough for their opposition to cross runners across home plate.  This should be a low-scoring game and the only possible way I see this bet losing is if Washington’s bullpen (5.40 ERA over 13.1 innings this season) falls apart late.

Nationals 2

Marlins 3