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Thursday MLB Best Bet: Orioles vs. Royals
Written by Jake Thompson
Thursday, 04 August 2011 14:44
We’ll try to keep the hot streak alive with the Thursday MLB best bet between the Orioles and the Royals.
I believe we’ve hit the last 5 MLB best bets in a row now and are hopeful that our 6th straight win will come on Thursday in the 8:10 PM ET game between the Baltimore Orioles (43-64) and the Kansas City Royals (47-63). Online sportsbooks have the home-team Royals as the -131 betting favorite currently and we’ll let you know where the value lies in those MLB odds.
It’s been a while since Baltimore and Kansas City have challenged for a playoff spot, but the Orioles have been the superior team head-to-head and have beaten the Royals in 55 of the last 81 games the two teams have played against one another. That being said, the Orioles have won only 2 of their last 8 in Kansas City and have only won 3 of their last 10 overall this year while the Royals have taken home wins in 4 of their last 6.
Kansas City is hitting a solid .288 over their last 10 games and will be facing off against Baltimore starter Zachary Britton (6-8, 1.43 WHIP, 4.56 ERA) tonight. Britton has a horrid 4.17 WHIP and 24.00 ERA over his past 3 starts but did have an okay start against the Royals earlier this season, going 6.0 innings and allowing 3 earned runs on 9 hits and 2 walks in a win. Britton doesn’t go deep in games and, even if he has a nice start, Baltimore’s bullpen (1.52 WHIP, 4.67 ERA) is likely to give up a few runs late.
Opposing Britton will be left-hander Jeff Francis (4-11, 1.33 WHIP, 4.38 ERA) for the Royals. Francis has pitched well lately but has also give up 10 earned runs over his 11.2 innings pitched against the Orioles this season. Kansas City’s bullpen (1.29 WHIP, 3.39 ERA) is quite a bit more trustworthy, and you have to like the fact that Baltimore has only hit .248 on the road and .235 overall during their last 10 games.
Francis isn’t the best pitcher in the league but I have to back the Royals at these low MLB odds. There is a reason the Orioles are 17-36 on the road this year, and they are in a hitting slump. Since Britton and the Baltimore bullpen are likely to give up quite a few runs, the Orioles will fall here because of their inability to keep up on the scoreboard. Francis is a savvy veteran and should do what it takes to get a win for his team.
Orioles 3
Royals 7