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Thursday MLB Best Bet: Phillies vs. Cardinals
Written by Jake Thompson
Thursday, 23 June 2011 03:12
The MLB best bet for Thursday has to be in the game between the Phillies and the Cardinals.
We chose this clash as the MLB best bet because of the excellent starting pitchers, with Roy Oswalt (4-5, 1.30 WHIP, 3.38 ERA) going for the Philadelphia Phillies (46-28) and Chris Carpenter (1-7, 1.39 WHIP, 4.47 ERA) getting the nod for the St. Louis Cardinals (40-34). The game has an 8:15 PM ET start time, and online sportsbooks have made the home-team Cardinals the small -107 betting favorites.
Oswalt has a 5.12 ERA over his last 19.1 innings and simply hasn’t been as sharp as he was earlier in the year. He went 5.0 innings against the Cardinals earlier this year, giving up 7 hits but only allowing a single earned run to cross. Oswalt has been strong against the Cardinals historically, but surprisingly has only won 1 of his last 7 starts against the team. St. Louis has hit just .217 over their last 10 games, and now has to deal with an injury to superstar first baseman Albert Pujols’ wrist that will keep the slugger out for 4-6 weeks.
Carpenter has dealt with his share of struggles this season, but has lowered his WHIP and ERA quite a bit over the last month or so. He’s not pitching like the dominant starter he’s capable of being, but has won 6 of his last 7 starts against the Phillies. Carpenter went 8.0 innings while only allowing 6 base runners in his last start against Philadelphia, while the Phillies are hitting .257 over the course of their last 10 games this season. The Phillies have not hit well on the road this year but seem to be heating up as their starting lineup gets healthier.
I think both starters are capable of putting in strong outings, but ultimately it’s Oswalt that is the better bet. Philadelphia’s 2.87 bullpen ERA easily bests St. Louis’ 4.10 mark, and you have to figure that this Cardinal offense is much weaker without the big hits and lineup protection that Pujols provides. Take this small underdog and hope that Carpenter is still a bit off from top form.
Phillies 4
Cardinals 2