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Thursday MLB Best Bet: Pirates vs. Blue Jays
Written by Jake Thompson
Thursday, 30 June 2011 05:37
Let’s try to extend our winning streak in the Thursday MLB best bet between the Blue Jays and the Pirates.
It’s a bit of a surprise to see the Pittsburgh Pirates (40-38) with a better record than the Toronto Blue Jays (39-41) at this point in the season, and we’ll let you know which team comes out on top as the two meet up in our Thursday MLB best bet. Even more surprising is the fact that the Pirates’ 21-18 road record actually eclipses the 17-19 home mark that the Blue Jays have amassed, but that hasn’t stopped online sportsbooks from making the home-team Blue Jays the -135 betting favorite for this 7:07 PM ET clash.
Toronto has scored quite a bit easier at home this season and they’ll draw Pittsburgh’s Jeff Karstens (5-4, 1.10 WHIP, 2.66 ERA) in this one. Karstens last pitched against the Blue Jays in 2006 and tends to be a bit home run-prone, which could run him into trouble against the sluggers of Toronto. The Pirates have received quality work from their bullpen, but the 1.21 WHIP doesn’t quite matchup with the 2.57 ERA, meaning that I think the Blue Jays can score a late run or two.
Pittsburgh has quite a few injuries to their offensive regulars, and the fact that they are hitting just .232 against left-handed pitching won’t help them much against southpaw Brett Cecil (1-2, 1.67 WHIP, 6.86 ERA). That being said, Cecil has pitched horribly all season and was demoted after showing a lack of normal velocity. Cecil has been hit or miss in his minor league starts but apparently he showed enough for the Blue Jays to give him another chance as the starter continues to build up arm strength.
Toronto comes into this game hitting just .210 over the course of their last 10 games, but almost all of those statistics are derived from matchups on the road. At home, they’ll definitely be able to generate more offense. Unfortunately for Toronto, it appears that Cecil is not back at full strength and appears equally as likely to give up some runs to Pittsburgh. With my belief that both bullpens will allow base runners late, I think the over at 8.5 runs is about as nice of a bet as you’ll find.
Pirates 5
Blue Jays 6