Thursday MLB Best Bet: Rays vs. Rangers

Written by Jake Thompson
Thursday, 01 September 2011 04:52

It’s time to preview our Thursday MLB best bet game between the Rangers and the Rays.

The Tampa Bay Rays (73-61) and the Texas Rangers (77-59) are set to play on Thursday, and the 8:05 PM ET game has been selected as our MLB best bet.  The home-team Rangers are garnering roughly 65% of all wagers according to MLB bet-tracked websites, and the odds here show that Texas is favored at -140 with a total of 8.5 runs.

Texas has been nearly unbeatable at home this season (43-27) and leads the American League West by 3.5 games over the Los Angeles Angels, while the Rays are 9.0 games in back of the Boston Red Sox in the American League East and 7.5 games behind the New York Yankees for a wild card spot in the playoffs.

Thursday’s starting pitchers will be left-hander C.J. Wilson (13-6, 1.23 WHIP, 3.29 ERA) for the Rangers and right-hander Jeff Niemann (9-5, 1.18 WHIP, 3.46 ERA) for the Rays.  Both pitchers have been pitching very well lately but Texas (1.10 WHIP, 3.02 ERA) has the bullpen edge over the Tampa Bay (1.27 WHIP, 3.71 ERA) if the relief pitchers are needed in the later innings.

The Rays hit .251 against lefties on the season, hit .251 overall on the road, and have hit .251 during their last 10 games.  Wilson has won 2 of his 3 career starts against Texas while allowing a total of 6 earned runs on 11 hits and 10 walks over a combined 18.0 innings pitched.  Although the southpaw is prone to random poor outings, ultimately he’s a very good starter that should put in 6 quality innings on Thursday.

Niemann has never faced the Rangers but has produced victories for Tampa Bay in 7 of his last 10 starts this season.  Texas hits a stellar .285 at home on the year but will play the Rays while on a cold streak that has seen them bat just .242 over their last 10 games.  The Rangers are without right fielder Nelson Cruz (.270, 28 HRs) due to a hamstring injury but are set to welcome back third baseman Adrian Beltre (.276, 20 HRs) after the slugger missed the previous 37 games with a hamstring injury of his own.  Niemann is a guy that gives up plenty of home runs and that might spell trouble against a power-hitting Rangers’ lineup.

As much as I hate to bet on an under when Texas is at home, much less one with a total as low as 8.5, I have to think it’s the play here.  Wilson should do well against a light-hitting Tampa Bay squad while the Rangers simply look lost on offense lately.  Although Niemann has issues with home runs, he also strikes out a ton of batters which will negate the runs that Texas manages to put on the scoreboard.

Rays 3

Rangers 4