Thursday MLB Best Bet: Red Sox vs. Rays

Written by Jake Thompson
Thursday, 16 June 2011 02:22

Thursday’s MLB best bet will be the stellar showdown between the Red Sox and the Rays.

Although the Boston Red Sox (39-27) still lead in the American League East standings, the Tampa Bay Rays (36-31) are making the improbable run that they seem to make on a yearly basis.  The Rays are just 15-16 at home this year and will be going against a Boston squad that is one of the best in the league on the road at 20-14.  Although Tampa Bay is just a small -118 betting favorite, close to 75% of track MLB bettors are making their wagers on Boston to get the win in this 7:10 PM ET clash.

You’d be hard-pressed to find two better young phenom starters in Major League Baseball right now then today’s starting pitchers Clay Buchholz (5-3, 1.31 WHIP, 3.59 ERA) and David Price (7-5, 1.04 WHIP, 3.51 ERA.  Although both starters are likely to pitch well into the later innings, it is worth noting that both teams have solid bullpens and that this game will be umpired by Gary Darling who is averaging just 7.0 runs allowed per game when he is behind home plate.  A low-scoring game that is dominated by pitching is to be expected.

Price is a gifted left-handed pitcher that has won 4 of his 6 career starts against Boston.  The Red Sox just a very nice .270 against southpaws this year but have scored just 14 combined runs over 39.2 career innings against Price.  With the road team hitting .313 over their last 10 games, I could see this Red Sox squad getting a few runs, but ultimately Price should go 6+ innings with only a few base runners allowed to cross over home.

Buchholz has had even more success against Tampa, allowing only 9 earned runs over his 44.2 career innings pitched against the Rays.  I don’t see Buchholz giving up many runs with the Rays just .229 at home, but it is worth noting that they have upped their team average to .263 over the course of their last 10 games overall (all but one of them on the road).  The Rays were bogged down at the start of the season by a rash of injuries to their starting lineup, but now seem to be on the upswing as most of their players have come off the disabled list.

Ultimately, I think that Buchholz dominating Tampa Bay is more likely than Price dominating the red-hot Red Sox, and that is why I’m going with Boston as small road underdogs.  Price has been great against Boston but Buchholz has been even better against the Rays, and he should be even better this time around with Tampa Bay losing some key offensive contributors in the offseason.  At worst, this is a 50/50 type of game where we are getting a positive return on the talented underdog.

Red Sox 3

Rays 2