Thursday MLB Best Bet: Reds vs. Giants

Written by Jake Thompson
Thursday, 09 June 2011 13:56

We’ll let you know whether to take the Reds or the Giants in our Thursday MLB best bet.

The Cincinnati Reds (32-31) have dropped 9 of their last 11 games on the road, but that hasn’t stopped the online sportsbooks from making them the -110 betting favorites for their 10:15 PM ET clash against the San Francisco Giants (35-27) today.  San Francisco has an impressive 17-10 record at home this year but has dropped 3 of their last 5 head-to-head meetings against the Reds.  Cincinnati has two regulars listed as questionable as shortstop Edgar Renteria (back) and third baseman Scott Rolen (flu) continue to battle through their ailments.

The reason that the Reds are road favorites today is because right-hander Johnny Cueto (2-2, 1.06 WHIP, 2.27 ERA) has been nothing short of amazing since an early season injury cost him a few games at the start of the year.  Cueto has been dominant since the start of May, and the Giants are hitting just .243 over their last 10 games thanks to some injuries to their offensive stars.  On top of that, San Francisco hits just .230 at home on the year and Cueto is likely to have another productive outing.

The Giants will turn to left-hander Madison Bumgarner (2-7, 1.32 WHIP, 3.42 ERA), and the southpaw has been pitching well this year despite putting on a few too many base runners at times.  Bumgarner gave up 7 earned runs and 3 home runs over 2.2 innings in his only career start against Cincinnati and the Reds are crushing lefties to the tune of a .299 average this year.  Although the Reds hit just .240 on the road, they continue to bat well against the southpaws and have put up a .305 mark over their last 10 games against them.

The bullpens for both squads have been solid, and this appears likely to be a fairly low-scoring game like many others before it in San Francisco.  Cueto should throw quality innings, and the bet comes down to whether or not we believe that Bumgarner can match his performance.  Although the left-hander is facing a tough task, he’s simply become a better pitcher this season and rarely gives up a home run.  Cincinnati has a lineup with some serious power hitters, and Bumgarner’s ability to keep the ball in the park gives the Giants a great shot at the win.  Teams don’t go 17-10 at home without a reason, and our bet is to go with San Francisco as underdogs.

Reds 2

Giants 3