Thursday MLB Best Bet: Tigers vs. Indians

Written by Jake Thompson
Thursday, 11 August 2011 04:02

We’ll try to win our 13th straight MLB best bet with the Thursday game between the Tigers and the Indians.

The Cleveland Indians (58-56) will be the home team against the Detroit Tigers (61-55) on Thursday night, and we hope that 13 is a lucky number for our best bet win streak.  Online sportsbooks have the road-team Tigers as the large -180 betting favorites to go along with a total of 7.5 runs.  Although Detroit has been the superior team this season, it is interesting to note that the Indians have won 13 straight games against their American League Central foe when in their home stadium.  The Tigers have taken just 2 of the last 11 head-to-head meetings overall against Cleveland and will look to reverse that trend in this 7:05 PM ET clash.

The Tigers currently sit atop the American League Central standings with a 2.0 game lead over the Indians.  Although Cleveland is just in back of Detroit, they are still 11.5 games in back of the New York Yankees for the American League wild card spot, making this series all that more important.  The White Sox sit just 4.0 games in back of Detroit and it seems very possible that the playoff race could come down to the final days of the season.

Detroit is favored by such high odds because staff ace right-hander Justin Verlander (16-5, 0.87 WHIP, 2.30 ERA) is set to take the mound.  Verlander has been incredible all season long and has won 8 of his last 10 starts against Cleveland, including a masterful 9-inning shutout in a start earlier this season.  Verlander is incredible but it’s worth noting that he’s allowed 10 earned runs over his last 19 innings pitched on the road in this series.  The Indians have been hit hard with injuries to their offensive stars this season and come into this game batting just .245 over their last 10 games.

Cleveland will counter with right-hander Fausto Carmona (5-11, 1.36 WHIP, 5.19 ERA), a pitcher that started the season horribly but has come around recently.  The Indians have won in 4 of his last 5 outings and he has allowed just 8 earned runs over those accumulated 27.2 innings.  Carmona has won his last 2 starts against the Tigers and he’ll face a Detroit squad that has batted .266 over their last 10 contests.  Detroit right fielder Brennan Boesch (.285, 16 HRs) is listed as questionable with a sprained right thumb and will take away some pop from the Tiger lineup if he misses action.

Verlander needs to throw quality innings because the Detroit bullpen (1.31 WHIP, 3.54 ERA) never seems to close out a game without threatening to blow the lead.  The relief pitchers of the Indians (1.17 WHIP, 2.89 ERA) have been much more reliable this season and are also more likely to be needed since Carmona rarely goes deep into games.

The Thursday MLB best bet here has to be on the under at 7.5 runs.  Verlander’s ability to go deep into games will reduce the possibility that Detroit’s bullpen allows late runs, while the star pitcher should have no issues with this weakened Cleveland lineup.  Carmona has been pitching great lately and should have a good start regardless of whether or not Boesch is able to suit up.

Tigers 3

Indians 2