Tuesday MLB Best Bet: Astros vs. Mets

Written by Jake Thompson
Tuesday, 19 April 2011 19:17

The Tuesday MLB best bet will focus on the Astros and Mets game.

After hitting a +160 underdog with our Monday MLB best bet, we’ve selected the 7:10 PM ET game between the Houston Astros (5-11) and the New York Mets (5-11) as the Tuesday MLB best bet that will keep the money train on the tracks.  The Astros are just 1-5 on the road this season but the Mets are a surprising 1-6 at home, and that was enough for online sportsbook to make New York just a small-to-medium-sized favorite on the betting odds this afternoon.

Houston has won just 3 of the last 12 meetings with the Mets, while the under has been a winner in 9 straight head-to-head clashes.  Today’s total is set low at 7.5 and today’s starting pitchers will be Wandy Rodriguez (0-2, 1.81 WHIP, 7.31 ERA) for the Astros and Jon Niese (0-2, 1.41 WHIP, 6.88 ERA) for the Mets.  Both starters are left-handers and both guys are quite a bit more talented than their poor 2011 MLB season statistics might indicate.

Rodriguez has been hit hard by the Philadelphia Phillies and the Chicago Cubs this season, but also dominated the Florida Marlins through 7 innings.  He’s been much too hittable so far but only allowed 4 hits and 1 earned run over 7 innings in his start against the Mets last season.  Rodriguez went 6 innings while allowing 8 hits and 3 earned runs last time he had to travel to play the Mets, and New York has scored 3 runs per game off starters when they are in their home park.  Rodriguez should throw quality innings but I don’t see him totally shutting down this team.

The Mets will counter with Niese and the young prospect has had a similar season to Rodriguez.  Niese started the year off by dominating the Florida Marlins before the Philadelphia Phillies and the Colorado Rockies hit him particularly hard.  Niese has started 2 games against the Astros in his career and has allowed a total of 11 hits and 2 earned runs over 14 innings of work.  Both starts were wins, but the Astros have been a pleasant surprise offensively this season and are scoring an average of 3.25 runs per game against the opposing teams’ starting pitcher.

This game could definitely come down to the relief pitchers and the Mets’ 3.12 cumulative bullpen ERA bests that of the Astros’ 4.08.  New York’s .231 batting average at home is also superior to the .215 mark of Houston.  The only thing that scares me about betting on the Mets is that Houston is hitting .304 on the year against left-handed pitching, but ultimately I think New York has the better starter, the better offense, and the better bullpen.  The only reason the price is so low is because they’ve been losing home games against quality teams and I expect the record to improve tonight.

Astros 3

Mets 5