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Tuesday MLB Best Bet: Marlins vs. Athletics
Written by Jake Thompson
Tuesday, 28 June 2011 13:41
The Tuesday MLB best bet will be in the clash between the Athletics and the Marlins.
Although the Florida Marlins (34-44) and the Oakland Athletics (35-44) have both been disappointments this season, there is still plenty of money to be made in their 10:05 PM ET interleague game tonight. Online sportsbooks have listed the home-team Athletics as -172 betting favorites and close to 60% of tracked MLB bettors are taking Oakland according to wager-tracking websites. These squads last met up in 2008 and it was the Athletics that took home 2 of 3 games in that series.
Florida is going with struggling starter Javier Vazquez (4-7, 1.69 WHIP, 6.37 ERA), and you shouldn’t be fooled his some recent starts of his. Despite coming off a shutout performance, Vazquez has a 2.14 WHIP over his last 14.0 innings and is still putting plenty of guys on base. Oakland has a weak-hitting offense that is batting just .224 over their last 10 games, but Vazquez is just too hittable for the Athletics not to score some runs here. The veteran pitcher has had success in Oakland over the last few years, but a decent start is about as good as it is going to get.
Opposing Vazquez will be left-handed starter Gio Gonzalez (6-5, 1.30 WHIP, 2.59 ERA) for Oakland. Gonzalez is going up against an ice-cold Florida squad that is batting just .205 over their last 10 games, and Florida’s .247 average against southpaws this season isn’t exactly dominant. The Marlins have never seen Gonzalez’s stuff and I don’t expect them to generate much offense here.
With both clubs having strong bullpen staffs and poor offenses, this game figures to be decided very much by the starting pitchers. Although Oakland has the more reliable guy starting, there simply is no way I’m laying those big odds in a game where the Athletics will struggle to score runs. They’ll get a few on Vazquez, but the Marlins could also get a few off of Gonzalez if one of their power hitters connects on a good pitch. At this high line, the only play here is to go with Florida and hope that Vazquez gets some lucky grounders to help out his cause.
Marlins 4
Athletics 3