Tuesday MLB Best Bet: Mets vs. Nationals

Written by Jake Thompson
Tuesday, 26 April 2011 16:25

The Tuesday MLB best bet is in the Nationals and Mets game.

We’ve selected the 7:05 PM ET game between the New York Mets (9-13) and the Washington Nationals (10-11) as our Tuesday MLB best bet.  Close to 60% of tracked MLB bettors are taking the road-team Mets while the online sportsbooks have made the Nationals as tiny wagering favorites here.  We’ll preview how both clubs are doing lately before deciding on the best bet that is most likely to put some cold hard cash in the pockets of our readers.

The Nationals have won 3 of the last 4 head-to-head meetings in this series, but it is worth noting that the Mets were winners in 4 straight before that recent streak.  Injuries don’t figure to play a big part in this game but you can make a note that Nationals third baseman Ryan Zimmerman continues to be out with an abdominal strain that has sidelined him for Washington’s last 13 games.  New York starter Chris Young (1-0, .97 WHIP, 1.46 ERA) appears to be healthy enough to go after going on the 15-day disabled list with tendinitis in his biceps.

Young has dominated in both of his starts this year with the most recent being a 7 inning, 1 allowed hit effort against these very same Nationals.  Although the start ended up turning into a 3-7 loss because of bullpen issues, Young has accumulated 22 innings and just 1 earned run over his last 3 starts against Washington.  The Nationals are hitting just .222 at home and .223 over their last 10 games, so it doesn’t appear that Young will be giving up a ton of runs unless there is more to his injury than what has been released in the media.

Washington will counter with right-hander Jordan Zimmerman (1-3, 1.15 WHIP, 3.70 ERA) and this is one guy who I expected would have a great year after missing large portions of the last few seasons with injuries.  Zimmerman is coming off a poor outing against the red-hot St. Louis Cardinals but also went 5.1 innings while allowing just 2 earned runs against the Mets earlier in the year.  Unlike Young, Zimmerman took home a 6-2 victory and has allowed just 12 hits and 4 earned runs over his last 3 starts (totaling 15.1 innings).  The Mets are hitting .234 on the road and .228 over their last 10 games and I also don’t expect them to score with any regularity tonight.

The Mets’ bullpen has a 2.89 ERA while the Nationals’ relief pitchers are at 3.06, so I don’t think there will be a ton of late runs.  Young’s injury still scares me a bit and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him just a little bit off in his return to action.  That might be enough for Washington to get a few runs on the board and that is honestly all they might need to get a win here because I expect Zimmerman to go around 6 innings of dominant baseball.  The fact that he doesn’t go deep into games worries me a bit, but Washington’s bullpen has been solid enough to lead me to believe that the Nationals can still win this game as small home favorites.

Mets 2

Nationals 3