Tuesday MLB Best Bet: Nationals vs. Brewers

Written by Jake Thompson
Tuesday, 24 May 2011 15:01

Tuesday’s best bet comes in the MLB game between the Nationals and the Brewers.

The Washington Nationals (21-26) will try to improve on their 10-17 road record as they get set to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (25-23) and their impressive 17-6 mark at home in Tuesday’s MLB best bet.  Online sportsbooks have made the Brewers a -160 favorite for this clash, and close to 60% of tracked MLB bettors are making their picks on Milwaukee according to bet-tracked websites.  The Nationals have won just 7 of the last 26 games in Milwaukee but did sweep the Brewers in Washington earlier this season.

It’s been a tough year for the Nationals as their offense has incurred numerous injuries and comes into this clash hitting just .223 on the season.  Although their .247 average over their last 10 games indicates that the replacements are finally figuring it out, their lack of run production over that time shows that they are just hitting plenty of singles and not lighting up the scoreboard with power shots.  Left-hander Chris Narveson (2-3, 1.28 WHIP, 3.44 ERA) gets the start for Milwaukee and he’s been very difficult to hit lately.  Further complicating Washington’s effort is the fact that they hit just .194 on the year against lefties, and Narveson should put in solid innings tonight.

The Nationals will counter with the ageless Livan Hernandez (3-6, 1.40 WHIP, 3.64 ERA) for this one and this guy simply knows how to pitch.  His pure “stuff” isn’t close to what it once was, but he keeps getting key outs despite putting plenty of guys on base.  Although Milwaukee hasn’t hit well as a whole this season, their .285 average at home indicates that they are much more comfortable in their friendly confines.  Hernandez has struggled away from home this season but did dominate the Brewers in Washington earlier in the season.  Although Hernandez can be surprisingly effective at times, I just don’t think he’ll be able to handle this hard-hitting Milwaukee lineup this time around.

About the only thing that scares me about Milwaukee is their occasional bullpen collapse, but ultimately the relief pitchers for the Brewers have a 1.31 WHIP and a 3.56 ERA on the season, indicating that they should be able to do okay against this light-hitting Washington squad.  Brewers’ right fielder Corey Hart is coming off of a 3-home run game, and if his bat is waking up than Milwaukee is a dangerous team; especially at home where they crush the ball.

Nationals 2

Brewers 6