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Tuesday MLB Best Bet: Rays vs. Twins
Written by Jake Thompson
Tuesday, 05 July 2011 17:30
The Rays and Twins will be featured in our MLB best bet for Tuesday.
Online sportsbooks have made the visiting Tampa Bay Rays (47-38) small -115 betting favorites for their 8:10 PM ET game against the Minnesota Twins (37-46), and our MLB best bet for Tuesday night will let you know if the home team can pull off the upset here. Close to 60% of tracked MLB bettors are taking the Rays, partly because Tampa Bay’s impressive road record of 26-17 actually eclipses the 19-18 home mark that the Twins have put together on the season. Minnesota has dropped 6 of 8 head-to-head meetings with Tampa Bay this year, as well as coming up short in 5 of the 8 clashes in 2010.
Starting pitchers for this American League clash will be James Shields (8-5, 0.98 WHIP, 2.45 ERA) for the Rays and Scott Baker (6-5, 1.19 WHIP, 3.15 ERA) for the Twins. Both starters are 2-1 over their last 3 games, with Shields sporting a 1.80 ERA and Baker actually outdoing him with a mark of just 1.64. Shields pitched 7.0 strong innings earlier this season against the Twins and has won his last 3 starts against them, while Baker also was incredible over 7.0 innings against Tampa earlier in the year but in a losing effort.
These teams really don’t have much in the way of an offense, and Minnesota’s home park definitely caters to pitchers because of its large dimensions. These starters are both right-handers, and the Rays have a slight advantage with a .243 batting average on the year compared to just .234 for the Twins. The Rays have been the hotter team lately as well, with their .266 batting average over the course of their last 10 games once against eclipsing the .241 mark that Minnesota has swatted.
Although Tampa Bay’s bullpen and their 1.25 WHIP and 3.98 ERA are anything but a sure thing, they still are a safer bet than the Twins’ relief pitchers that come into tonight’s game with a cumulative 1.35 WHIP and 4.55 ERA. Although I think that Baker should put in another strong performance, the bet here has to be on Tampa Bay. The Rays are hitting better, are starting a pitcher that has dominated all season, and have proven to be less prone to giving up runs in the later innings.
Rays 3
Twins 2