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Tuesday MLB Best Bet: Twins vs. Giants
Written by Jake Thompson
Tuesday, 21 June 2011 13:30
The interleague matchup between the Twins and the Giants will be our MLB best bet for Tuesday.
Tonight’s 10:15 PM ET late game between the San Francisco Giants (39-33) and the Minnesota Twins (31-39) is a great one to bet on despite the fact that these squads haven’t played each other since the 2005 MLB season. Online sportsbooks have made the home-team Giants the -150 betting favorite on the heels of their impressive 19-12 record at AT&T Park this season, while the Twins will look to improve on a 17-23 road mark. Although San Francisco has been the superior team this season, the Giants come in as losers in 4 straight while the Twins have claimed victories in 9 of their last 10 games this year.
These teams have been hit hard by injuries to their starting lineup, but the Twins’ .265 average over their last 10 games easily beats the .221 mark that the Giants have amassed over the same time frame. Minnesota hits only .231 on the road and I could definitely see this game turning into a low-scoring pitchers’ duel if Minnesota’s bullpen (1.39 WHIP, 4.37 ERA) doesn’t fall apart in the later innings. San Francisco has the better group of relief pitchers, but it won’t matter much if they can’t find a way to generate some offense.
Veteran Carl Pavano (4-5, 1.33 WHIP, 4.20 ERA) draws the start for Minnesota, and the streaky pitcher has a 1.44 ERA over his last 25.0 innings pitched. Left-hander Madison Bumgarner (3-9, 1.29 WHIP, 3.21 ERA) will be starting for the Giants, and the youngster has a similar 1.80 ERA over his last 3 starts. Pavano hasn’t faced the Giants since 2004, while Bumgarner has never squared off against the Twins, so you won’t be able to draw much information from previous starts. Minnesota’s .244 average against southpaws eclipses the .231 mark that San Francisco has amassed against righties, but neither team figures to score many runs here.
This is a tough bet to make a call on, but ultimately it’s the Giants’ inability to score runs and Pavano’s recent hot streak that have me believing that Minnesota as a +137 underdog is the way to go. Bumgarner should have a great start against a team that doesn’t generate many runs, but the Giants are just not seeing the ball right now. The Twins are the red hot team and I have to back them as underdogs in a game that could go either way.
Twins 3
Giants 2