UFC 129 Predictions, Odds, & Fight Card

Written by Jake Thompson
Saturday, 30 April 2011 20:41

Here are our predictions on tonight's UFC 129 fight card.

UFC 129 PPV Card:

Georges St. Pierre (-450) vs. Jake Shields (+350)

Shields has no striking and is completely reliant on his takedowns and top control grappling to win fights.  The problem is that he won’t be able to take St. Pierre down and will be smacked around until he can’t take any more damage.  Shields is tough as nails but he’ll go down for good in the 3rd or 4th round after getting rocked numerous times.

Jose Aldo (-465) vs. Mark Hominick (+365)

The smart play is to go with the underdog because I’m not sure that Aldo can get Hominick down and utilize his excellent Jiu Jitsu skills.  If it stays standing like I think it will, this fight is close to 50/50.  Aldo has devastating leg kicks and knockout power but Hominick is a former kickboxing champion with one of the better chins in the sport.  I could see an upset happening and it doesn’t hurt that Hominick is fighting in his home country.

Randy Couture (+280) vs. Lyoto Machida (-350)

Couture has made a career out of winning fights he has no business winning, but this is a tough matchup for him.  Machida moves around so well and should be able to stay away from being shoved against the fence.  Couture has good takedowns but isn’t getting any younger and Machida’s sumo base makes it hard to get him down.  I’m calling for Machida to get the knockout in the 2nd round after Couture takes some punishment and fails to implement his game plan.

Benson Henderson (-120) vs. Mark Bocek (-110)

This is a tough one to call with Henderson having the striking and wrestling edges but Bocek being tough to beat in the submission game.  Henderson has been caught in deep submissions before but always seem to use his elastic limbs to escape and I’m just not sure he’ll have that luxury if he gets caught by a guy as good as Bocek.  That being said, Henderson’s striking and wrestling edges should be enough to get him the decision win here.

Jason Brilz (-120) vs. Vladimir Matyushenko (-110)

This fight is tough to figure out because both guys are wrestlers with limited striking ability.  Not only are these two pretty dang close in wrestling ability, but I’ve also seen fights like this where both guys are capable of negating the other’s takedowns and it turns into a kickboxing battle.  Matyushenko has better wrestling credentials but he’s also older and hasn’t looked in top form recently.  I’ll go with Brilz because I feel the youthfulness will play a factor.

UFC 129 Spike TV Card:

Nate Diaz (+110) vs. Rory McDonald (-140)

Sean Pierson (+170) vs. Jake Ellenberger (-210)

UFC 129 Facebook Preliminary Card:

Daniel Roberts (+110) vs. Claude Patrick (-140)

Charlie Valencia (+170) vs. Ivan Menjivar (-210)

Ryan Jensen (-120) vs. Jason MacDonald (-110)

Kyle Watson (+150) vs. John Makdessi (-180)

Yves Jabouin (-165) vs. Pablo Garza (+135)