UFC 133 Predictions and Updated Odds

Written by Jake Thompson
Friday, 05 August 2011 21:40

The UFC 133 weigh-ins have just wrapped up and we’ll now try to predict the results of the fight card with some betting predictions.

UFC 133 is set to take place on Saturday and we’ll make predictions on the televised pay-per-view portion of the fight card.  Since many of our readers like to wager on the outcome of the fights, we’ll be sure to take the UFC 133 odds into consideration when making these predictions.  Best of luck to everyone that makes their own UFC 133 predictions, and I hope that we can all win some big money on the Tito Ortiz vs. Rashad Evans card!

UFC 133 Odds and Fight Card:

Tito Ortiz +360

Rashad Evans -450

Vitor Belfort -300

Yoshihiro Akiyama +250

Dennis Hallman -120

Brian Ebersole +100

Jorge Rivera -145

Costantinos Philippou +125

Rory McDonald -270

Mike Pyle +230

Matt Hamill +160

Alexander Gustafsson -185

Chad Mendes -600

Rani Yahya +450

Ivan Menjivar -210

Nick Pace +175

Johny Hendricks -130

Mike Pierce +110

Nam Phan +175

Mike Brown -210

Paul Bradley -125

Rafael Natal +105

UFC 133 Predictions:

Tito Ortiz vs. Rashad Evans

Evans (15-1-1) should have edges in wrestling, striking, and quickness, while Ortiz (16-8-1) leads in size and possibly submissions.  Evans has his black belt in Jiu Jitsu but rarely goes for submissions, which makes it a bit difficult to figure out what will happen on the ground.  I do not think that Ortiz has much in the way of punching power despite knocking Ryan Bader on his butt in his last fight.  For Tito to pull another huge upset, he’ll have to get Evans on his back.  I just don’t see that happening and expect Evans to control the striking and wrestling en route to a unanimous decision win.

Vitor Belfort vs. Yoshihiro Akiyama

Belfort (19-9) has fast hands, knockout power, and a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu pedigree that we rarely get to see.  The one thing that he lacks is superior wrestling, and it will be interesting to see if Akiyama’s (13-3) Judo superiority will be enough to get his opponent onto the mat.  Akiyama likes to stand and bang, which is a bad idea against Belfort.  The Japanese fighter has an iron chin but there aren’t many men on this planet that can go toe-to-toe with Belfort’s boxing prowess.  Ultimately, I think the UFC 133 odds are off in a big way and Akiyama has a great chance to land a big punch or at least use his trips to get top position.  I’m calling for a split decision win for Akiyama in what I expect to be the fight of the night.

Brian Ebersole vs. Dennis Hallman

Ebersole (47-14-1) is fresh off a UFC win against Chris Lytle, but is perhaps best known for his cartwheel kick knockout or the arrow of hair he had on his chest last time out.  Either way, the guy is as exciting as they come and is extremely difficult to finish because of his iron chin and improving submission defense.  Hallman (50-13-2) is a wrestler with a superior Jiu Jitsu pedigree; he’s never been submitted and has 39 submission victories to his credit.  Although I’m rooting for Ebersole and his high-risk antics, ultimately I have to back Hallman because of his wrestling and submission advantages.  Ebersole has a chance to get the knockout but it’s not worth it at the +100 UFC 133 odds currently being offered.

Jorge Rivera vs. Costantinos Philippou

Although Rivera (19-8) is better known to UFC fans, Philippou (7-2) is an extremely difficult matchup for him.  Rivera is a tough striker with power and good takedown defense, but Philippou is an excellent boxer that is just as tough with better technical skills.  Rivera has a very good chin but it’s also a chin that has been cracked previously because of a lack of defense.  Philippou has the striking acumen to take advantage of that weakness and I expect the underdog to either take the decision or land the cracking shot in the 3rd round to send his opponent to the canvas for good.

Mike Pyle vs. Rory McDonald

Pyle (21-7-1) is an experienced veteran that specializes in submissions, but he’s also shown to be capable in all areas of the fight game.  McDonald (11-1) is a wrestler with a strong submission game that has youth on his side.  It all comes down to whether the old breed’s experience will be able to get by the new breed’s explosiveness.  McDonald has never been submitted and that includes fights against ground wizards like Nate Diaz and Carlos Condit.  Pyle has beaten quite a few wrestlers over his lengthy career but has also been submitted by wrestlers as well.  Ultimately, I feel that McDonald is better than Pyle at this stage and he should be able to avoid the submission game that his more accomplished opponent will throw at him.  Look for McDonald to latch onto a rear-naked choke in the 2nd round for the tap out victory.