UFC 138: Predictions, Odds, & Fight Card

Written by Jake Thompson
Thursday, 03 November 2011 16:38

Our UFC 138 predictions are up and ready to go on Saturday’s free fight card.

UFC 138 might not have the biggest names the sport has to offer, but what it does pack is plenty of exciting fighters who know how to entertain an audience.  The UFC 138 card will be played out at the LG Arena in Birmingham, England on November 5th, and Spike TV will show the tape-delayed fights for free at 8:00 PM ET.  Those that can’t wait to get their mixed martial arts fix can catch the preliminary fights live on the UFC’s Facebook page at 12:05 PM ET.

All of the UFC 138 odds used in this article are from 5Dimes Sportsbook, and we recommend using them for all your mixed martial arts wagering.  They’ve agreed to give customers who sign-up through our link a 50% cash bonus on top of their initial deposit, and there isn’t a better offer to be found online.

UFC 138 Odds:

Mark Munoz -265

Chris Leben +225

Renan Barao -135

Brad Pickett +115

Thiago Alves -345

Papy Abedi +285

Terry Etim -600

Edward Faaloloto +450

Cyrille Diabate -375

Anthony Perosh +285

Justin Edwards -125

John Maguire -105

Michihiro Omigawa -300

Jason Young +250

Philip De Fries -135

Rob Broughton +105

Che Mills -245

Chris Cope +185

Chris Cariaso -175

Vaughan Lee +145

UFC 138 Predictions:

Mark Munoz vs. Chris Leben

Leben (22-7) is best known for his knockout power and iron chin, but he also is an above average wrestler who has added a bit of a submission attack to his game recently.  Munoz (11-2) is a very accomplished wrestler with improving Muay Thai striking, but it remains to be seen if he’ll be able to stand and trade with Leben.  Munoz has shown issues with striking defense previously and hasn’t always responded well to getting hit, so I’m thinking he’ll use his wrestling to win rounds.  The betting favorite has some excellent ground and pound, but Leben is likely too tough and experienced to be phased.  Since this is the first 5-round non-title fight in UFC history, my predictions call for Munoz to win a few rounds before Leben eventually lands the big punch for the knockout victory.

Renan Barao vs. Brad Pickett

Pickett (20-5) will be fighting in his home country, and he’ll bring his exciting striking and submission game to the octagon.  I wouldn’t call him an expert in any one category, but he’s strong enough – not to mention tough enough – everywhere that he’s a dangerous opponent for anyone.  “Barao” (26-1) is actually a nickname, but I don’t feel like typing do Nascimento Mota Pegado too many times in one article.  He’s an excellent submission fighter with a boxing background from Nova Uniao who has won 26 in a row after dropping his professional debut.  Pickett has had issues staying up against aggressive grapplers, and I think that Barao has enough technical boxing to stay out of harm’s way before getting the fight to the mat.  We’ll go with the small favorite by unanimous decision.

Thiago Alves vs. Papy Abedi

Alves (18-8) is a dangerous Muay Thai striker who has really only shown glaring weaknesses against top-level wrestlers.  He is competent on the ground and it’s been a long time since he’s been submitted.  Abedi (8-0) is a prospect making his debut at UFC 138.  The Swedish fighter has a background in Judo but has won 5 of his 8 career fights with punches.  Although Alves has the edge in experience, I am calling for Abedi to take advantage of the favorite’s over-aggressiveness and hand him his 2nd career loss by way of strikes in the very 1st round.

Terry Etim vs. Eddie Faaloloto

Etin (14-3) hasn’t fought in over a year and you have to wonder if he will be rusty.  The Brit has had issues with stronger ground fighters, but his length allows him to keep distance in the standup while threatening for submissions if he gets taken down.  Faaloloto (2-2) also has shown issues with takedown defense, but he’s a scrapper with solid kicks that can hurt opponents if he can connect.  Between the huge layoff and the underdog odds, I have to go with Faaloloto to win a decision.  Etim hasn’t shown the power to consistently threaten people on the feet, and our big underdog can win the fight by using takedowns.  I’ll call for this to be the biggest upset of the night.

Cyrille Diabate vs. Anthony Perosh

Diabate (17-7-1) is a lanky striker with plenty of power in both his hands and his feet, while Perosh (11-6) is an accomplished submission fighter that hasn't shown much in the striking department.  Figuring out the winner here will obviously be mostly about who can dictate where the fight takes place, and I have to believe that will be Diabate doing so.  The guy doesn’t have great takedown defense but I haven’t been impressed with Perosh’s takedowns.  I think the favorite will keep his distance at UFC 138 until he lands a meaningful shot and can put his opponent away with strikes.