UFC Live 4: Fight Card & Predictions

Written by Jake Thompson
Thursday, 23 June 2011 00:11

It’s time to preview the UFC Live 4 card and make some winning predictions on the fights.

Although the main event at UFC Live 4 between Nate Marquardt and Rick Story in a welterweight showdown is garnering much of the publicity, this fight card has many other interesting clashes that make tuning in a must.  We’ll go over the entire UFC Live 4 fight card and make some betting predictions on how we expect the action to unfold on Sunday, June 26th.

UFC Live 4 Fight Card:

Nate Marquardt vs. Rick Story

Pat Barry vs. Cheick Kongo

Tyson Griffin vs. Manny Gamburyan

Matt Brown vs. John Howard

Joe Stevenson vs. Javier Vazquez

Matt Mitrione vs. Christian Morecraft

Michael Johnson vs. Edward Faaloloto

Charles Oliveira vs. Nik Lentz

Joe Lauzon vs. Curt Warburton

Daniel Roberts vs. Rich Attonito

Matt Grice vs. Ricardo Lamas

UFC Live 4 Predictions – The Bets To Make:

Rick Story is the small favorite for this fight with Nate Marquardt, and you have to like him at those odds.  Marquardt has dropped a weight class and figures to be larger than most of the opponents he faces, but Story is a wrestler that is all too familiar with weight cutting.  With these two likely to be fairly similarly sized, Story is the bet here because of Marquardt’s inability to handle wrestlers.  He was dominated by a similar fighter in Chael Sonnen, and I just think Story is too tough and well-rounded to have many issues here.  Story’s only career losses have been by decision, and he’s extremely durable.  He’ll control where the fight takes place and win the decision.

Cheick Kongo is a bit steep at -200 odds, but I just don’t see how he’s going to lose his fight against Pat Barry.  Both guys have K1 experience, and Barry has proven to be the MMA striker, but Kongo has enough of a chin and striking know-how to avoid most of the punches and kicks from his opponent.  Barry has shown in previous fights that his wrestling and submission game is worlds behind, and Kongo has shown the ability to take fighters down to unleash some vicious ground and pound.  I think Kongo gets the early takedown and ends this one in the first or second round with big punches.

Tyson Griffin is another fighter dropping down a weight class, and he should have a nice size advantage over Manny Gamburyan.  Despite a recent knockout loss to Takanori Gomi, Griffin has a great chin and is nearly impossible to put away.  Gamburyan has a big punch but his technical skills in the striking department are quite a bit behind Griffin’s.  I think Griffin uses his size and wrestling advantages to avoid Gamburyan’s ground game, while unleashing clean combos and winning the standup.  This one looks like a decision win for Griffin.

The fight between John Howard and Matt Brown is a tough one to call because they each have strengths and weaknesses that are successfully countered by their opponent.  Howard has nice boxing skills, but Brown has an iron chin and decent striking himself.  Brown’s submission game can be difficult, but ultimately I think Howard will be happy to keep this one standing.  I feel that Howard is the stronger man and will be able to accomplish this, and what we’ll end up with is a slugfest with both guys landing some great shots.  I’m giving Howard the edge here, but Brown is scrappy and could easily pull the upset.  This one seems like a good matchup to go to decision with how tough Brown is.