Wednesday MLB Best Bet: Astros vs. Reds

Written by Jake Thompson
Wednesday, 06 April 2011 19:04

The Astros at Reds game will be our MLB best bet for Wednesday.

Our MLB best bet for Wednesday will let you know if the Houston Astros (0-4) will finally win a game or if the Cincinnati Reds (4-0) will continue their hot start to the 2011 season.  Cincinnati will be the home team for this National League Central clash and it’s not a big surprise at all to see the Las Vegas sportsbooks list the Reds as the large betting favorite.  Close to 70% of tracked MLB bettors are taking Cincinnati tonight and we’ll check out both teams to let you know if Houston can pull the upset in this 7:10 PM ET clash.

Both starting pitchers are right-handers with the Astros going with Nelson Figueroa and the Reds countering with Edinson Volquez.  Figueroa had a very pedestrian spring but did go into Cincinnati last year to limit the Reds to 9 base runners and 0 runs over 6.2 innings.  That being said, Figeuroa gave up 7 earned runs on 16 hits and 4 walks over 10.1 innings in his previous two starts against the Reds, so it is tough to tell what type of performance to expect.  Volquez didn’t have a strong spring either and then gave up 5 earned runs to the home run hitting Brewers in his season opener.  Despite that poor showing and question marks surrounding his velocity, Volquez has given up just 5 earned runs over the 33.2 innings pitched against the Astros in his career.

Houston doesn’t have much punch on offense and, despite playing all 4 of their 2011 games in home run-friendly parks the Astros have averaged just over 3 runs per contest.  The Reds have been as hot offensively as any MLB team and are averaging nearly 8 runs on the scoreboard each game.  Cincinnati is hitting .319 on the season while Houston is well below the MLB average at just .210.  Further dimming any hopes of the upset would be the statistic that the Astros have won just 6 of their last 26 games against the Reds.

Cincinnati has gotten excellent innings from their relievers (1.42 ERA on the year) while Houston’s bullpen has a 2.02 WHIP and a 5.40 ERA on the season.  The Reds are going to put up runs here and I just don’t see the Astros being able to match that total with how unable they’ve been to hit Volquez in previous years.  That being said, Volquez is having some issues and will give up a few runs here.  That makes our MLB best bet for Wednesday actually two bets, with the Reds and the over 8.5 runs expected to hit easily.

Astros 4

Reds 7