Wednesday MLB Best Bet: Blue Jays vs. Royals

Written by Jake Thompson
Wednesday, 08 June 2011 17:04

We’ll tell who whether to take the Royals or Blue Jays in our MLB best bet for Wednesday.

The Toronto Blue Jays (31-30) and the Kansas City Royals (26-35) meet up in an 8:10 PM ET game that has been selected as our MLB best bet for Wednesday night.  The Royals are at home tonight, and online sportsbooks have made them tiny -112 betting favorites despite the fact that close to 75% of tracked MLB bettors are going with the Blue Jays.  Kansas City has taken 4 of the last 6 head-to-head meetings against Toronto, and we’ll let you know if they are going to be able to improve on that percentage tonight.

The Royals are going with left-hander Daniel Duffy (0-1, 1.67 WHIP, 4.43 ERA), and the young prospect has pitched below expectations thus far after a strong showing in the minor leagues.  Duffy is putting far too many runners on base, and his command is making him walk batters at a high rate.  Although the Blue Jays hit just .249 on the road this season, their .288 average over the course of their last 10 games indicates that they could hurt Duffy early.  Should the youngster leave the game (he doesn’t pitch many innings anyway right now), the Royals will turn to a bullpen whose 1.38 WHIP suggests a rise in their 3.89 ERA before too long.  Long story short, the Blue Jays should be able to score some runs in this one, although Duffy has shown the ability to battle out of tough innings.

Toronto will turn to Carlos Villanueva (3-0, 0.98 ERA, 2.72 ERA), and the right-hander, and the converted reliever has been hit or miss since being moved to a starter after pitching in the bullpen previously.  Kansas City has hit .274 against righty pitchers at home this year, and it’s concerning that Villanueva doesn’t have the arm strength to go deep into games.  Without him in the bullpen, Toronto’s relief pitchers have put up a horrid 1.64 WHIP and 5.91 ERA over their last 3 games.  Kansas City should score some late runs here, and might score some early ones as well if Villanueva isn’t sharp.

Instead of making a call on who wins this game, we think the Wednesday MLB best bet is to go with the over which is set at 9.5 runs.  The bullpens have been shaky and the starting pitchers both carry the potential to give up big runs early.  On top of that, both teams can put up runs in a heartbeat and both have some big long-ball mashers.

Blue Jays 5

Royals 6