Wednesday MLB Best Bet: Diamondbacks vs. Giants

Written by Jake Thompson
Wednesday, 11 May 2011 17:29

Our Wednesday MLB best bet will be in the game between the Giants and the Diamondbacks.

The San Francisco Giants (19-16) will put their impressive 8-5 home record on the line tonight against the Arizona Diamondbacks (15-19), and we’ve selected this National League West clash as our MLB best bet for Wednesday.  The Diamondbacks are just 5-10 on the road this season and the online sportsbooks have made San Francisco a medium-sized betting favorite for this late 10:15 PM ET clash.

I’m honestly a bit surprised to see that the Giants were bet down a little bit after opening up at -180 or so.  The betting public isn’t huge in favor of either team but I’d expect San Francisco to have a higher price tag since they’ve won 20 of the last 26 head-to-meetings with Arizona.  The Giants have won 3 of 4 this season and the Diamondbacks have averaged just 2.75 runs per game during those games.

Arizona’s hopes rest on right-hander Armando Galarraga (3-2, 1.48 WHIP, 5.29 ERA) and the pitcher who should have thrown a perfect game while with the Detroit Tigers if not for an umpire error has struggled at times this season.  Despite drawing some easy matchups, Galarraga has given up a multitude of home runs and has lacked control throughout the season.  Even when he’s “on”, Galarraga still gives up runs and is a good bet not to dominate anyone at this point.  The Giants are hitting just .213 over their last 10 games but they are getting healthier and they should be able to put up runs here even if they’ve struggled recently.

The Giants will counter with left-hander Jonathon Sanchez (2-2, 1.45 WHIP, 3.55 ERA) and he’ll be squaring off against a Diamondbacks squad that has hit just .230 on the road, .206 over their last 10 games, and just .218 against left-handed pitchers when away from home.  Sanchez is coming off a poor start and does have command issues but he’s also given up 3 runs or less in 8 starts against Arizona from the 2009 season onward.  Arizona ranks in the bottom half of the majors in terms of walks drawn and I think they’ll be more apt to swing at pitches out of the strike zone than some of the more veteran teams that Sanchez has faced.

Arizona’s bullpen has a 3.05 ERA on the season but I have a feeling they are going to start giving up runs before too long because they simply should not be this good with the personnel they’ve assembled.  San Francisco’s bullpen ERA of 2.79 is much more likely to hold steady and I think the Giants get an easy win tonight after scoring off Galarraga and the Arizona bullpen.  The price is good and you can always play the -1.5 at close to even money if you aren’t the type that likes to lay bigger odds.

Diamondbacks 2

Giants 6