Wednesday MLB Best Bet: Marlins vs. Mets

Written by Jake Thompson
Wednesday, 31 August 2011 16:36

Wednesday’s MLB best bet will be in the game between the Marlins and the Mets.

Although neither the Florida Marlins (60-74) or the New York Mets (64-69) has much in the way of playoff hopes, that won’t stop us from coming up with a nice wager in Wednesday’s MLB best bet game.  Online sportsbooks have the home-team Mets at -135 with the MLB odds showing a total set low at 8 runs.  65% of tracked MLB bettors are taking New York despite the fact that Florida has won 7 of the last 9 meetings when the Mets are at home.

Starting pitchers for today’s game will be right-hander Chris Volstad (5-11, 1.49 WHIP, 5.61 ERA) going for the Marlins and left-hander Chris Capuano (10-11, 1.32 WHIP, 4.43 ERA) taking the mound for the Mets.  Florida’s bullpen is decent enough with a 1.22 WHIP and 3.56 ERA on the year, while the Mets’ relief pitchers have been dreadful this season (1.40 WHIP, 4.21 ERA).

The Marlins hit just .238 against left-handed pitching this year and have batted .240 overall during the course of their last 10 games.  Shortstop Hanley Ramirez (.243, 10 HR) is still on the shelf after aggravating his left shoulder injury in a rehab start and the Marlins have lost all 3 starts against Capuano this year.  Florida has put up 10 earned runs over those 19.2 innings, so I suppose there is some hope that they get their offense together today.

New York has a .257 average over their last 10 games and has hit a solid .271 against righties when playing at home this year.  Volstad has been pitching poorly all season and gave up 3 earned runs on 8 hits and 3 walks over 5.0 innings in his only start against the Mets this year.  I don’t trust Volstad at all and he’s lost his last 4 starts against New York.  Helping out both pitchers will be home plate umpire Fieldin Culbreth, a guy that has had a loose strike zone this year that has resulted in games he has called only averaging 8.11 runs.

The Mets have won 4 of their last 5 games and are still playing hard despite the fact that they don’t have a ton to play for besides pride.  Capuano can put together solid games but I have to admit that the New York bullpen scares me quite a bit since they tend to blow games in the later innings.  With Volstad likely to give up a few runs, I think the best play in the Mets vs. Marlins game has to be on the total going over 8 runs.

Marlins 4

Mets 5