Wednesday MLB Best Bet: Orioles vs. Royals

Written by Jake Thompson
Wednesday, 04 May 2011 19:17

The Orioles and Royals game will be the choice for our Wednesday MLB best bet.

You won’t find a better game to bet on Wednesday’s card than the 8:10 clash between the Baltimore Orioles (13-15) and the Kansas City Royals (16-13).  The Royals are 13-5 at home this season and it’s a bit of a surprise to see them as the underdog to the road-team Orioles.  Baltimore is just 6-7 on the road this season and the odds have made close to 60% of tracked MLB bettors take Kansas City tonight.

Baltimore has historically had the edge in this series, winning 50 of the last 74 head-to-head meetings against the Royals.  That being said, Kansas City has won 5 of the last 7 against the Orioles and they’ve had much stronger contributions from their offense and bullpen this year.  The problem for Kansas City has been their starting pitchers and it will be interesting to see if the Royals can improve on the 5.20 starter ERA in this one.

Kansas City will turn to right-hander Kyle Davies (1-3, 1.81 WHIP, 7.98 ERA) in hopes of improving on that poor statistic.  Davies has had two good starts this season but has been hit hard quite a bit and it’s tough to tell how he might fair tonight.  He’s done well in his last 3 starts against the Orioles but also has games where he gives up a ton of home runs which isn’t a good sign against a Baltimore team with some power.  The Orioles are only hitting .236 on the year but could easily put up runs if Davies doesn’t have his stuff.

Baltimore’s Jake Arrieta (3-1, 1.36 WHIP, 5.01 ERA) hasn’t been that trustworthy this season either and will get the start opposing Davies.  Arrieta is facing a Kansas City squad hitting .270 at home and .276 over their last 10 games, and the Royals have been a huge surprise offensively.  Kansas City put up 3 runs on 11 base runners over 4.1 innings the only time they’ve ever faced Arrieta, but the young Baltimore pitcher has improved since that 2010 season.  Although Arrieta might put in 5 or 6 solid innings, you have to realize that he doesn’t go deep into games and will be handing the ball off to a bullpen that has a 5.38 ERA on the year.

Davies could very well get rocked here but I think the best bet in this game has to be going with the Royals as the home underdog.  Arrieta isn’t a dominant starter and Kansas City appears likely to score some runs off of that poor Baltimore bullpen when he leaves.  If Davies puts together a strong start like he is occasionally capable of, this one should come in easily.  If he doesn’t the Royals still have a decent chance to come back in the later innings and win anyway.

Orioles 4

Royals 7