Wednesday MLB Best Bet: Pirates vs. Marlins

Written by Jake Thompson
Wednesday, 20 April 2011 16:44

The Marlins and Pirates game will be our Wednesday MLB best bet.

There isn’t a better best bet for Wednesday than the 7:10 PM ET game between the Pittsburgh Pirates (8-9) and the Florida Marlins (9-6).  The Marlins might have the better record between these two National League clubs, but Florida’s 4-3 mark at home can’t compare to the terrific 7-4 road record of the Pirates.  Online sportsbooks have listed the Marlins as medium-sized betting favorites for tonight’s game and we’ll tell you if Florida deserves such a lofty honor.

Pittsburgh has won just 1 of the last 8 games against the Marlins and the under has been a winner in 13 of the last 16 head-to-head clashes (today’s total is set at 8 runs).  Injuries don’t figure to play a huge part in deciding who wins this one, but it is worth noting that Florida left fielder Logan Morrison (.327, 4 HR, 11 RBIs) is listed as questionable after suffering a foot injury (arch strain) in Tuesday’s game against the Pirates.

Charlie Morton (2-0, 1.14 WHIP, 1.64 ERA) takes the mound for the Pirates, and the 6’5” starter has dominated the St. Louis Cardinals, Colorado Rockies, and Cincinnati Reds to start his 2011 MLB season.  Morton really figured it out at the end of last season and has pitched in Florida twice in the last two years, accumulating 12 innings while allowing just 5 hits, 5 walks, and 2 earned runs.  The Marlins are hitting .255 on the season but have done much of their damage on the road and not in their spacious home ballpark.

Ricky Nolasco (1-0, 1.10 WHIP, 4.05 ERA) will get the ball for Florida and he dominated the New York Mets and the Houston Astros before getting hit hard in his last start against the Atlanta Braves.  Nolasco went 8 innings of shutout baseball in his last start against the Pirates in Florida, and he also went into Pittsburgh and shut out his adversary for 6 innings in his only start last season.  Pittsburgh is only hitting .232 on the year and has allowed most starting pitchers they’ve faced to go 6 or more innings.

I don’t see either team doing much damage against the opposing team’s starter, but the Marlins could score some late runs against a Pittsburgh bullpen that has a 3.92 ERA on the season.  Florida’s relief pitchers have a cumulative 1.81 ERA on the year and seem like a much better bet to have success tonight.  Ultimately, the total of 8 should sail under and that is what we are going with for our Wednesday MLB best bet.

Pirates 2

Marlins 3