Wednesday MLB Best Bet: Rays vs. Blue Jays

Written by Jake Thompson
Wednesday, 18 May 2011 15:53

The Wednesday MLB best bet will be the game between the Blue Jays and the Rays.

It was tough to make a Wednesday MLB best bet selection because the schedule is full of excellent wagers, but ultimately it was the game between the Tampa Bay Rays (24-18) and the Toronto Blue Jays (21-20) that made the cut.  Online sportsbooks have this one at close to even money both ways and most bettors are taking Tampa Bay at those odds.  The Rays have a stellar 13-5 record on the road and they’ll do their best to improve it against Toronto’s 9-8 home mark.

Tampa Bay has won 4 of the 6 head-to-head meetings against Toronto this season, as well as 4 of the last 6 from last season.  The only significant injury in this one is to Blue Jays’ first baseman Adam Lind (.312, 7 HR, 27 RBIs), as the powerful player is on the 15-day disabled list thanks to lower back soreness.  Both squads have had strong bullpens this year and the winner of this game will likely come down to how the starting pitchers match up against the opposing offenses.

The Blue Jays will go with right-hander Jesse Litsch (4-2, 1.35 WHIP, 4.14 ERA) for this game and he hasn’t started against Tampa Bay since the 2008 MLB season.  The Rays have a much different starting lineup right now and you can’t put too much into those past results despite Litsch having plenty of success against this team historically.  The Rays are hitting .244 on the season, .269 on the road, and .261 over their last 10 games after an early season slump cause partly by injuries.  Tampa isn’t a team that scores a ton of runs and I expect Litsch to go about 6 innings while allowing about 3 to cross home plate tonight.

Star prospect Jeremy Hellickson (4-2, 1.21 WHIP, 2.98 ERA) gets the nod for Tampa and the right-hander has been incredible this year.  Hellickson was so good in the minors that the Rays decided they could move Matt Garza to the Chicago Cubs, and the decision has been a good one so far.  The bad news for Hellickson is that Toronto is hitting .270 over their last 10 games and they put up runs on big power shots when playing in their home park.  Toronto only got 3 runs over 7 innings against the youngster earlier this season but should have more confidence after seeing his stuff.  That being said, Hellickson isn’t the type to get rocked and scoring won’t be easy for the Blue Jays.

When the Toronto bats are smashing the ball like they have been over the Blue Jays’ current 6-game winning streak, this team is nearly impossible to beat.  Tampa Bay has played over their heads on the road this year and I expect that trend to reverse itself as Toronto gets 3-4 runs against Hellickson and probably adds another against a Rays’ bullpen that has also outperformed their abilities.

Rays 3

Blue Jays 5