Wednesday MLB Best Bet: Royals vs. Blue Jays

Written by Jake Thompson
Wednesday, 24 August 2011 03:56

Wednesday’s MLB best bet will be chosen in the game between the Blue Jays and the Royals.

Although the Kansas City Royals (53-76) and the Toronto Blue Jays (65-63) are out of the playoff picture, that won’t stop us from selecting these American League squads in our MLB best bet for Wednesday.  Online sportsbooks have the home-team Blue Jays as -188 favorites with the total set at 8 runs.  Despite roughly 65% of tracked MLB bettors going with Toronto, the odds have shifted down from the -200 opening line.

Although the Royals have won just 7 of their last 21 games in Toronto, Kansas City has managed to grab 3 of the 5 head-to-head meetings this season against the Blue Jays.  The underdog will have former top pick Luke Hochevar (8-10, 1.33 WHIP, 4.93 ERA) on the mound here.  The right-hander is too hittable at times but he’s won 3 of 4 career starts against the Blue Jays.  Hochevar’s ability to keep the ball in the park fairly well will help him out quite a bit against the power-hitting Blue Jays.  Toronto is hitting just .240 over their last 10 games but that power potential generally allows them to score a good amount of runs at home.

Opposing Hochevar will be left-hander Ricky Romero (12-9, 1.11 WHIP, 2.73 ERA) for Toronto.  The Royals aren’t hitting great at just .253 over their last 10 games, and their .252 mark against south paws this season doesn’t exactly instill confidence.  Romero has allowed 6 earned runs over 15.0 career innings pitched against the Royals and should have a good start since he’s been dominant lately with the Blue Jays winning his last 6 starts.  It’s important for Romero to go deep into this game since the Toronto bullpen has been poor with a 1.37 WHIP and a 3.94 ERA.

Although both pitchers could throw quality innings, ultimately it is Romero that has the best chance to dominate.  Hochevar occasionally puts in quality outings but he’s rarely unhittable, while Romero has a 1.12 ERA over his last 3 starts.  I’m not a huge fan of laying big odds like this but you have to like the Blue Jays at home with their ace on the mound.  Kansas City isn’t hitting that well and I just don’t see them winning this game.

Royals 2

Blue Jays 5